As Sarah Palin's unusual "One Nation" bus tour winds its way through the Northeast, Republican insiders seem convinced that the former Alaska Governor will not run for president. But if Palin defies the conventional wisdom and decides to seek the presidency, does she have a path to the Republican nomination? Although her negative ratings are high with Democrats and Independents, Palin remains popular with Republicans, and a surprising number remain open to her candidacy.
Among all adults, Palin's favorable ratings have grown steadily more negative since 2008, as shown in the chart below. These eroding numbers are why Palin fares consistently worse against Barack Obama than equally well known potential candidates, such as Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, in a series of national surveys conducted in recent months. (Huckabee announced in May that he will not run.)
"Has she contacted one major donor across the country about putting together an organization? Has she talked to one member of the Republican National Committee about working for a campaign, or one governor, or one former governor about working for a campaign? The answer is no."